Insights · PS3The Number That Can't Be Negotiated After the Tender Closes

The Business Times asked in June 2026 whether $3,000 psf is the new normal. The honest answer isn't about sentiment or timing. It's about what developers have already paid for the land under tomorrow's launches.

Direct Answer

$3,000 psf is already normal in the CCR and much of the RCR, and it's reaching well-located OCR sites. Average GLS land prices hit $1,397 psf ppr in the first five months of 2026, up 13% on the year and 23% since 2024. At the usual 2.2x to 2.5x land-to-launch multiple, a developer that paid $1,556 ppr for a 2026 site can't launch much below $3,400 psf and stay viable. Fourteen of sixteen major launches since March 2024 sold more than 70% on their first weekend. The market is absorbing these prices, not pushing back.

The Data, Corridor by Corridor

Tengah Garden Residences (OCR) $2,111: Land $821 (lowest) Springleaf Residence (OCR) $2,169: Land $905 Lentor Central Residences (OCR) $2,214: Land $982 The Orie (RCR) $2,723: Land $1,360 Vela Bay (OCR) $2,863: Land $1,388 Skye at Holland (CCR) $2,949: Land $1,285 River Modern (CCR) $3,228: Land $1,420 (highest)

Source: CBRE Research · URA caveats as at 21 May 2026 · The Business Times, 2 June 2026

Three Patterns in the Table

What the Low-Land and High-Land Projects Each Show

Low land, high sell-through. Tengah Garden at $821 ppr sold 99% on day one at $2,111 psf. Springleaf at $905 ppr sold 92%. Lower land cost gives developers room to price competitively, and buyers respond fast.

High land, still strong if location justifies it. Skye at Holland at $1,285 ppr sold 99% at $2,949 psf. Location premium absorbs high land cost when the address is genuinely sought-after.

The Faber Residence anomaly. An OCR project with a land cost of $2,160 ppr, the highest in the table, sold at a median of only $2,153 psf, a razor-thin margin between land cost and selling price. It's worth watching how resale goes here, because there's very little room for price growth.

The Land Cost Ladder Ahead

Every project in the table was bought at a known land cost, and that cost becomes the floor under the next launch on the same corridor, because developers typically need 2.2x to 2.5x land cost to cover building, margin and sales. Dunearn Road closed at $1,625 psf ppr in April 2026, the highest city-fringe bid on record, which implies a break-even launch price above $3,400 psf. Dover Drive closed at $1,556 ppr in 2026, pointing to about $3,400 psf on that site too. That's not a sentiment forecast. It's cost accounting. Everything launching on these corridors from 2027 starts from a higher base than what's on sale today.

What It Means by Buyer Type

HDB upgrader buying first private: the best-value OCR launches, Springleaf at $905 ppr and Lentor Central at $982 ppr, have already sold out. The next OCR wave launches from land at $1,000 to $1,200 ppr, pricing 15% to 20% above today.Investor: projects launched 12 to 18 months ago on lower land cost carry structural price support from the higher-cost launches now arriving behind them. Wait-and-see buyer: the "prices will correct" argument needs developers to sell below what they paid for land they already own, and there's no obvious trigger for that on the horizon. CCR/RCR buyer: $3,000-plus psf is already the median, not an outlier, in this segment.

James's Note

Why Land Cost Matters More Than the Headline PSF

The BT data isn't a prediction. It's a record. Fourteen of sixteen projects since March 2024 sold 70% or more on their first weekend, at prices from $2,100 to $3,228 psf. The number I focus on isn't median psf. It's land cost, because that's the one figure that can't be renegotiated once a GLS tender closes. When a developer pays $1,625 ppr, the launch on that site is priced to recover it, and that sets the floor for everything that follows.

This doesn't mean every project at every price is a good buy. Faber Residence, where land cost and selling price sit almost equal, is the kind of anomaly worth flagging before recommending anything. The headline PSF isn't the story. The land cost multiple is.

Figures reflect general market data and do not constitute investment advice. Speak to a licensed financial adviser for guidance specific to your situation.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is $3,000 psf really becoming the norm for Singapore condos?+

It already is in CCR and much of RCR, and it's arriving in well-located OCR projects. Average GLS land rates hit $1,397 psf ppr in the first five months of 2026, up 13% year-on-year, and at typical land-to-launch multipliers that puts new launches on higher-cost sites well above $2,800 psf.

Why can't developers just price new launches lower?+

Because land cost is fixed once a GLS tender closes. Developers typically need 2.2x to 2.5x their land cost to cover construction, margin and sales -- a developer paying $1,556 psf ppr for a site cannot launch profitably much below roughly $3,000 psf.

Should I wait for condo prices to correct before buying?+

The data doesn't currently support that thesis. GLS land costs are up 13% year-on-year, construction costs haven't reversed, and 14 of 16 major launches since March 2024 sold over 70% on their first weekend -- there's no clear catalyst for developers to price below their land cost.

Which projects offer better value in a rising land-cost market?+

Projects launched 12-18 months ago on lower land cost, before the recent increases, often carry structural price support from the higher-cost launches now arriving on the same corridor behind them -- worth comparing against a project's specific land cost, not just its current PSF.

What should I watch for when a project's land cost is unusually high relative to its selling price?+

A thin gap between land cost and launch PSF -- like Faber Residence, where $2,160 psf ppr land cost sat close to its $2,153 psf median selling price -- signals very little room for capital appreciation. It's worth checking a project's land cost multiple before assuming a headline PSF represents good value.

Sources

  • The Business Times: Rising Land Bids Push New Condo Prices Into Focus, June 2, 2026
  • CBRE Research: New Launch Sales Data, May 2026
  • PropNex Research: Average GLS Land Rate, Jan-May 2026
  • URA: Private Residential Caveats, as at 21 May 2026

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This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Property investments involve risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should seek independent advice from licensed professionals before making any property or financial decision. James Ong is a licensed real estate salesperson (CEA Reg No. R008385F) with PropNex Realty Pte Ltd and is not a licensed financial adviser.

James Ong | CEA Reg No. R008385F | PropNex Realty Pte Ltd